Monday, April 27, 2020

Some Governors Receive Opprobrium, Others Avoid It


Today I saw some Emotional Baloney Devoid of Facts that pissed me off. Ireland, the country from which this Morally Indignant Sage of Science-y Wisdom is writing to criticize our president and select* governors, has had 224 deaths per million people; the US has had 171 deaths per million as of this writing. I don't read this writer, so I can't tell if he is slagging is own government as much as that of the United States, but perhaps he should. 

Up-to-date numbers can be found here: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/
And here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13O1rprFdkU9xpbnrlfEZeWu9T972NBKbppRVLWHhmYM/edit#gid=538573678

Outside of New York, where the 22,274 deaths (1,145/million) are definitely Trump's responsibility but not Governor Cuomo's or Mayor de Blasio's, the U.S. death rate is thankfully far lower. But Trump is mean I guess? New Jersey (680/million) is also run by a Democrat, so it avoids criticism. Imagine if Chris Christie was still governor!

The author mentions Florida, which has a much older and more vulnerable population. In FL, the governor is responsible for his state's 1,074 deaths because (50/million) he's a Trump mini-me and also mean and HATES SCIENCE.

In Georgia, the "homicidally stupid" governor has presided over 916 deaths, a death rate of 86/million. But he's opening beaches because he HATES SCIENCE and IS REALLY MEAN.


Another Ignorant state, Alabama, gets called out because "it was not until April 3rd that governor Kay Ivey finally issued a stay-at-home order..." 

Alabama has had 44 deaths per million people- 219 total! For reference, AL had 953 total traffic deaths in 2018, (link below) (Kay Ivey is a republican, of course, so it goes without saying that she is stupid and HATES SCIENCE also) https://www.iihs.org/.../fatality.../detail/state-by-state

What a crock of nonsense. Personally I think bad luck and randomness has more to do with the death and infection rates, but if you're going to politicize Coronavirus, look at which states have the most deaths per capita. More intellectual dishonesty from "journalists" who are less trustworthy than expired gas station sushi.

Sunday, April 19, 2020

Bearish Thoughts

This weekend I read  this well-argued bearish take. I tend to agree with the author that the last few weeks’ gains have been a gift: an opportunity to exit a market that hasn’t yet seen the bottom of a W-shaped recovery (you are still in the first “V”)

I find myself repeatedly thinking about the permanent lifestyle changes Covid-19 will induce, and how to guess who will be the winners and losers.  Some portion of the population- 10%? 20%?- will never again go to a movie theater, for example. I read today that buffets as we know them will cease to exist.

Is one company’s loss another’s gain? Do MSFT and ZM benefit proportionally from the airlines’ loss when video chat meetings replace business travel for some portion (5%? 15%?) of Corporate America?

The big question, is the US economy a machine that we can turn back on as quickly as we shut it down? The world economy?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4338344-hated-rally-ever-is-gift-for-investors-to-now-sell